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İ-DKP Başkanı Mustafa Hejri İle Röportaj-Hülya Yetişen


İ-DKP Başkanı Mustafa Hejri İle Röportaj-Hülya Yetişen

Irak Kürdistanı’nda Peşmerge ordu güçlerimiz vardır. Hatırlatılması gerekirki şu anda İran İslam Cumhuriyeti’ne yönelik silahlı mücadelemizi askıya aldık.
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Qazî Mihemed'in Kürd Ulusuna Vasiyeti


Qazî Mihemed'in Kürd Ulusuna Vasiyeti

Zulüm ve baskı gören halkım!

Yüce Allah aşkına vaatlere artık kanmayın. Çünkü onlar ne Allah'ı tanıyorlar, ne peygambere, ne kıyamet gününe, ne Allah huzurunda hesap vermeye inanıyorlar. Onların nezdinde, Müslüman da olsanız, Kürt olduğunuz için suçlusunuz, onların düşmanısınız

Kurd li Misrê - Nezîr Silo


Kurd li Misrê - Nezîr Silo

Misr yek ji welatên ku herî peywendîdar bû ji demek dirêj ve di nav dewletên erban de bi Kurdan re.

Büyük Ortadoğu Projesınden Büyük Ortadoğu Patlamasına-M.Peköz  


25-12-2012, 22:49 Kategori: Siyaset  
Büyük Ortadoğu Projesınden Büyük Ortadoğu Patlamasına-M.Peköz

BÜYÜK ORDOĞU PROJESİ’NDEN ‘BÜYÜK ORTADOĞU PATLAMASI’NA- Dr. Mustafa PEKÖZ

Büyük Ortadoğu Projesi, sadece kapitalist güçlerin Ortadoğu’nun enerji yataklarına el koymak için oluşturulmadı, esasen, dünya küresel kapitalist sisteminin 21. yüzyılın ekonomik, politik ve ideolojik yapılanmasına uygun ‘yeni’ toplumsal sistemler oluşturma stratejisidir. Bu nedenle ‘Büyük Ortadoğu Projesi’ ya da ‘Yeni Ortadoğu’ ismi ile adlandırılan politikalar, küresel kapitalist güçlerin, dünyayı yeniden dizayn etmesine yönelik stratejik projelerinden biridir.

ABD’nin önderliğinde gerçekleştirilen ve dünyanın bir bütün olarak sömürgeleştirme stratejisi ekseninde Afganistan’ı ve Irak’ı işgal etmesi ile bölge coğrafyası, uluslar arası güçler arasında pazar paylaşım rekabetinin odağı haline geldi. Askeri güç kullanılarak devam ettirilen bu proje, tersten Ortadoğu’da büyük patlamalara yol açmış bulunuyor. Bu bakımdan kesintisizce devam eden küresel işgal projesinin ortaya çıkaracağı politik sonuçları, şimdiden kestirmek son derece zor görünüyor. Çünkü uygulanmak istenen her plan; hem kendi içinde karşıtını doğurur, hem de söz konusu planda hesapta olmayan yeni politik süreçler yaratır. Bu durum kaçınılmaz olarak, bölgesel ilişkilerde ortaya çıkan veya çıkacak olan yeni süreçler, toplumsal değişimde çok daha farklı bir etkide bulunur.

‘Ortadoğu’nun küreselleştirilmesi’ politikası, dünya kapitalist sisteminin en önemli stratejilerinden birini oluşturmaktadır. Ortadoğu’nun merkeze dâhil edilmesi yani küresel sisteme çekilmesi için askeri güç dâhil bütün araçlar kullanılmaktadır. D. Harvey, Ortadoğu’nun küresel işgalinin petrolle olan ilişkisini açıklarken söz konusu ettiğimiz noktaya özel bir vurgu yapmaktadır: “…Ortadoğu'da askeri müdahaleye zorlayan etmen de, bu bölgedeki petrol kaynakları üzerinde daha sıkı bir denetim kura¬bilme arzusudur. Bu tür bir denetim kurma ihtiyacı, Carter doktrininden bu yana derece derece arttı. Söz konusu doktrin, Orta¬doğu petrollerinin küresel ekonomiye kesintisiz bir biçimde akmasını sağlamak için ABD'nin gerektiğinde askeri müdahaleye hazırlıklı olması gerektiğini” 1 söylüyordu. Bölgenin savaş alanına çevrilmesi, aynı zamanda küresel güçlerin stratejik çıkarlarıyla uyumlu görünüyor. 1900’lerden sonra özellikle İngiltere’nin ve Fransa’nın çıkarlarına uygun olarak belirlenen politik denklem, artık tarihsel işlevini doldurmuş bulunuyor. Küresel güçlerin ihtiyaçlarına yanıt veren bir kısım stratejilerin devreye konulması için, bugüne kadar uygulanan politikaların terk edilmesi anlamına geliyor. Bu durum, bölgede çok kapsamlı politik bir istikrarsızlığa yol açmakta ve tek tek ülkelerde yaşanan savaşlar, aynı zamanda bölgesel savaşa nesnel bir zemin oluşturmaktadır. Libya’dan sonra Suriye’ye yönelik izlenen askeri savaş politikası bunun somut bir örneği olarak karşımızda duruyor. Böylelikle küresel sistem güçleri, Ortadoğu’nun yeniden dizayn edilmesi için bölgenin uzun bir süre çok ciddi bir politik kaos ve savaş süreci içine girmesini göze almış bulunuyorlar.

E. Edelman da kendisi ile yapılan bir söyleşide, Büyük Ortadoğu Projesi’nin Bush veya her hangi bir başka yönetimin projesi olmadığını, önümüzdeki 20 yıl içerisinde kim başkan olursa olsun, ABD’nin uluslar arası politikaları bakımından zorunlu olarak uygulayacağı bir strateji olduğunu özellikle belirtmektedir. 2 Bu nedenle Ortadoğu’nun kürselleştirilmesi stratejisi çok yönlü yürütülmektir. Bu strateji izlenirken, bölgesel çapta bir kısım temel değişikliklerin gündeme gelmesi de bir bakıma zorunludur. Sorun Suriye ile kalmayıp, yakın gelecekte, İran, Suudi Arabistan, Türkiye ve İsrail’i kapsayacak bir şekilde bölgede ‘yeni’ politik depremlerin yaşanması kaçınılmaz hale gelecektir. Hatta Cezayir’den Pakistan’a kadar geniş bir bölgede, yeni haritaların ortaya çıkması da artık kaçınılmaz bir durumdur.

HARVEY David, Yeni Emperyalizm, İstanbul, Everest yay., 2004, syf.150.
URAS M. Güngör, "Ortadoğu İçin Türkiye 'Model' Değil Örnek Olabilir", Milliyet, 15 Nisan 2004.



Küresel güçlerin belirlediği politikaların hedefinde bölgenin demokratikleştirilmesi bulunmuyor. Bölgenin demokratikleştirilmesi yönündeki açıklamaların çok ciddi bir değeri de yok. Anthony Lake, "Bizim hedeflerimizin en önemlilerinden olan serbest pazarın oluşumu, kitle imha silahlanmanın yayılmasına belli sınırlar getirilmesi gibi konularda bizimle tamamen aynı düşünen ılımlı Orta Doğu devletleri kurmaktır.” 3 Savunulan politikanın özü, kapitalist küresel ekonominin bölgenin bir bütününe egemen olması için ‘Ilımlı İslamcı Devletlerin’ kurulmasına dayanmaktadır. ‘Demokratik alanın gelişmesi’ gibi özel bir çabaları da kesinlikle söz konusu değildir. ABD eski dışişleri yetkilisi N. Jersey’in “"Bizler, İslâmi bir yönetimle birlikte yaşamaya hazırız ama bizim hayatî çıkarlarımıza yönelik tehlike olmamaları ve bize düşmanlık yapma¬maları koşuluyla. Ortadoğu’daki insan hakları sorununa gelince, onunla ciddi bir kaygımız yoktur” biçimindeki değerlendirmesi de göstermektedir ki, ABD’nin Ortadoğu’nun ‘dönüştürülmesi’ için sıkça başvurduğu ‘insan hakları ve demokrasi’ gibi bir amacı kesinlikle söz konusu değildir. Bugüne kadar sürdürülen ‘İslami devletlerle birlikte yaşama ve destekleme’ politikası da kesintisizce devam edecektir.

Z. Brzezinski, 8 Mart 2004 tarihinde yazdığı bir makalede, ‘Büyük Ortadoğu Projesi’nin başarılı olması için, ABD’nin ayın zamanda bölge devletlerinin de bu sürece katılması gerektiğine özel bir vurgu yapmaktadır. Orta Doğu’nun küreselleştirilmesinin sadece dıştan yapılacak müdahalelerle olamayacağının farkında olan Brzezenski, iç değişimin önemine dikkat çekerken şunları belirtiyor: "Bush yönetiminin bu girişiminin başarılı olması için, bölgesel gerçekliklere daha fazla uyum göstermesi gereklidir. Bu bakımdan Amerikan yönetimi şu adımları atmalıdır: Birincisi, program Arap ülkeleriyle hazırlanmalı; sadece onlara, ne yapmaları gerektiğini söylemek yetmez. Mısırlılar ve Suudiler, dinsel ve kültürel geleneklerinin küçümsendiğini hissederlerse, demokrasiye ku¬cak açmaz. Yanı sıra Avrupalılar, işin içine tam anlamıyla katılmalı; planlanan işlerin tarifi ve neyi hedefleyeceği konusunda bölge ülkeleriyle kendi diyaloglarını sürdürmeli..."4 Ortadoğu’nun ‘demokratikleştirilmesine’ yapılan özel vurguların ciddi bir anlam ifade etmediği küresel barbarların ve onların eksen-uşak ülkelerindeki pratik yönelimlerinde ve bölge devletlerinin siyasal yapısı dikkate alındığında daha net olarak gözlemlenebilir. Ortadoğu’nun merkezi, yani küresel sisteme dâhil edilmesi için söz konusu edilen değişiklikler tamamen propagandaya yönelik olduğu, Afganistan ve Irak işgalleriyle kanıtlandı.

Thomas P.M. Barnett, “...Ortadoğu’yla dünyanın geri kalanını bir¬birine bağlamak yöneticileri değiştirmekle değil, bir şekilde Or¬tadoğu'yu sisteme(küresel sisteme bn.) daha çok dâhil etmekle mümkün olur. Birçok Müslüman'ın, Amerika sistemle bir bağlantı sunsa dahi çeşitli kültürel ve dini nedenlerle sistem dışı kalmayı tercih etmeye de¬vam edeceklerini kabul etmemiz gerekmektedir. Amerika, toplumların dış dünyadan kopuk olmasını tercih eden elit tabakanın koruyucusu değil, sistemle olan bağlantının sağlayıcısı olarak bir imaj edinmelidir.

LAKE Anthony, Yeni Bir Ortadoğu Kurmak, Foreiegn Affairs, No:2, Nisan 1994.
BRZEZİNSKİ Zbigniew, "Büyük Ortadoğu'ya Dikkat", Radikal, 10 Mart 2004; yaz., "Araplara Demokrasi, Ama Doğru Yöntemlerle", Zaman, 9 Mart 2004; Brzezinski'den BOP Uyarısı", Yeni Şafak, 9 Mart 2004.



Birçok Arap'ın Amerika'dan nefret etmesinin gerçek nedeninin petrol ticareti değil, bölgeyle siyasi ve askeri ilişkilerimizin sadece petrol ticaretine dayandığını düşünmeleri olduğuna yürekten inanıyorum. Amerika'nın çok daha fazlasını temsil etmesi gerekmektedir ve belki de savaş sonrası Irak'ta bu kapasiteyi gösterebiliriz. İçimdeki gerçekçi taraf bizi Ortadoğu'ya getirenin petrol olduğunu söylüyor, ancak iyimser tarafsa var olan za¬yıf bağlantıyı güçlendirerek bölgeyi küresel ekonomiye bütünleşmiş edebildiğimiz ve bunun sonucunda kitlelerin ekonomik ilişkileri sağlayacak fırsatlar yakalayabilmelerini sağladığımız sürece bunun "iyi" olduğunu söylüyor. “Öte yandan, petrol aynı zamanda bölge için önemli bir kurtu¬luş yoludur: En azından onun sayesinde Ortadoğu dikkatimizi çekmektedir. İzleyicilerden gelen "petrol için kan" sorusuyla karşılaştığımda tipik olarak şu cevabı veriyorum: "Evet, tabii ki bu savaş petrol için. Tanrıya şükür ki yalnızca petrol için. Çünkü size dünyada petrolün olmadığı ve birçok insanın öldüğü ve kimsenin aldırmadığı bölgeleri gösterebilirim." Petrolün dünya¬daki birçok ülke için olduğu gibi Arapların ekonomik gelişimi için de bir bela oluşturduğunu inkâr edemeyiz. Ancak, petrol ol¬masa Ortadoğu'nun çektiği acılar Amerikalılara geçen on yılda Orta Afrika'da gerçekleşen soykırımlar kadar uzak gelirdi...” 5

Küreselleşme politikasının önder gücü olarak işlev gören ABD’nin; Ortadoğu’nun küresel sürece dâhil etmesinin temel amacının ne olduğu çok belirgin olarak ifade edilmektedir. Kuşkusuz ekonomik faktörler yani enerji yatakları öncelikli olarak belirleyicidir. Bu alandaki başarı aynı zamanda Ortadoğu’nun siyasal düzeninin yeniden şekillendirilmesi çok daha açık olarak gündeme gelecektir. “Eğer Amerika Irak’ın dünya ile bağlantısını tekrar sağlayabilirse, küreselleşme savaşında gerçek bir zafer kazanmış olacağız ve Ortadoğu’nun dönüşümü ciddi olarak başlayacaktır...” 6 Irak işgali sadece bir adımı oluşturuyor. Ancak bölgenin tamamının küresel sömürgeciliğin kapsamına dâhil edilmesi bakımından önemli bir model oluşturmaktadır.

“...Amerika sadece terörizmi yenmek, İslam’ı kontrol altına almak, petrol kaynaklarını kontrol altına almak ya da İsrail’i korumak için Ortadoğu’yu dönüştürmüyor. Biz bölgeyi dönüştürmek istiyoruz çünkü dış dünya ile bağlantı kopukluğunu sona erdirmek istiyoruz ve orası bunu yapmaya değer ise başka yerde bunu yapmaya değerdir...” 7 Pentagon’un akıllı stratejisyenlerinden biri olan Barnett’in yaptığı değerlendirme, ABD’nin bölgesel stratejisini çok net olarak ortaya koymaktadır. Sorun sadece terörizm, İsrail, Petrol vs değil. Bunlar uygulanmak istenen stratejinin alt basamaklarını oluşturmaktadır. Hedef, Ortadoğu bölgesinin tamamının küresel sisteme dâhil edilmesi ve böylece bölgenin bir bütün olarak sömürgeleştirilmesidir. Afganistan’ın ve Irak’ın uluslar arası kapitalist güçlerin işgaline uğraması hiç şüphesiz ki, bu sürecin ilk deneme alanıdır. Bu strateji hem Afganistan’da hem de Irak’ta çok ciddi sorunlara yol açtı. Aynı şekilde ‘Arap Baharı’ ile başlayan süreç, bölgede politik istikrarsızlığı derinleştiriyor. Ancak küresel emperyalist güçlerin amacı bölgenin ekonomik ve politik olarak uluslar üstü sermayenin ihtiyacına göre yeniden organize edilmesini hedefliyorlar.


Büyük Ortadoğu Patlaması’nın Olası Politik Sonuçları:

BOP değişik biçimlerde uygulanmaya konulurken, bölgesel denklem yeniden şekilleniyor. Küresel sistem güçleri, bölgesel gelişmeleri istedikleri gibi kontrol etme şansına da sahip değildirler. Bölgedeki mevcut gelişmelerin orta ve uzun vadede ortaya çıkartacağı askeri, politik ve sosyolojik sonuçlar beklenilenden çok daha sert ve sancılı olacaktır. Örneğin mevcut statükocu devletlerin parçalanması artık kaçınılmazdır.

Ortadoğu’nun söz konusu devletleri içerisinde bulunan etnik guruplar, bölgenin stratejik dengelerinde önemli bir faktör olarak yer almaktadırlar. Bu etnik gruplar içerisinde ilgi çeken ve sorunları birbirine benzeyen birkaç giderek ön plana çıkmaktadır. Kürtler, Berberiler ve hatta Baluçiler Ortadoğu’nun bölgesel politikalarında ön plana çıkan ve çıkacak olan güçlerden bazılarıdır. Bu üç grup, tarihsel olarak bölgenin yerleşik halkları olup, ülkeleri başka güçler tarafından işgal edilen ve sömürge statüsüne sahip olan halklardır.

BARNETT, age, syf.258-259.
age, syf.339.
age, syf.391.



Kuzey Afrika’nın veya Ortadoğu’nun Magreb bölgesinin en eski ve yerleşik haklarından olan Berberiler, Fas’ın toplam nüfusu içerisinde yaklaşık olarak %39’u, Cezayir’de %19’u, Tunus’ta %20’yi, Libya’da % 12’yi, Sudan’da % 3’ü ve Mısır’da ise %1’i oluşturuyor. 8 Bir kısım kültürel ve politik haklarını elde etmiş bulunmalarına rağmen, halen bölgesel devletlerin işgali altında bulunuyorlar. Bölgenin yerleşik bir halk olarak gelecek yıllarda Kuzey Afrika’nın değişiminin itici gücü haline gelecekleri gibi Magreb bölgesinin sınırlarını değiştirmede önemli rol oynayacaklardır.

İkinci etnik grup Belucilerdir. Belucistan ülkesi, İngilizlerin belirlediği dönemsel politikalara göre üçe bölündü ve Pakistan, İran ve Afganistan tarafından işgal edildi. Bölgesel sömürge bir ülke durumundadır. Belucistan coğrafi bölgelere göre Pakistan’ın en büyük eyaletidir. Pakistan’ın toplam yüzölçümünün yaklaşık% 48’ine sahip olup 347.190 km² bir alana sahiptir. Belucistan'ın nüfusu ise yaklaşık 11.934.339 milyondur. Ayrıca İran’daki Belucistan Eyaleti’nin merkezi ise Zahidan’dır, 181.785 km²'lik bir alanı kapsıyor.9 Küçük bir kısmı da Afganistan işgali altındadır. Pakistan, İran ve Afganistan ilişkilerinin en önemli halkasını oluşturan ve çözüm bekleyen Balucistan sorunu, bölgenin en önemli politik sorunlarından biri olarak çözüm bekleyen meselelerinden biridir. Uzun vadede, ‘Birleşik Baluçistan’ olgusu bölgesel denklemi değiştirecek bir özelliğe sahiptir.

Ortadoğu’nun tam kalbinde bulunan ve özellikle de enerji kaynakları bakımından son derece stratejik öneme sahip olun Kürdistan toprakları da dört devlet tarafından parçalanmış bulunuyor. Birinci dünya savaşı sonrasın İngiltere ve Fransa’nın Ortadoğu’daki stratejik çıkarlarına göre oluşturulan strateji sonucu Kürdistan parçalandı. Tarihsel koşullar ve politik çıkarlar değişmeye başladı, Kürtler bugün bölgesel ilişkilerin stratejik merkezinde bulunan en önemli etnik gruplardan biri haline geldi. Genel olarak hesaplandığında 30 milyona yakın Kürt, Kürdistan merkez olmak üzere Ortadoğu coğrafyasında yaşıyor. 10 Yaklaşık olarak 450.000 km2 toprağı ile Kürtler bölgenin en önemli etnik grubudurlar. Irak’ta Federasyon Kürdistan olarak fiilen bir devlet yapısına sahiptirler. İran’da Kürdistan eyaleti olarak bulunuyor. Türkiye, halen Kürtlerin bir ulus olarak kabul etmiyor. Suriye’de ortaya çıkan politik durum Kürtlerin politik pozisyonunu önemli oranda değiştirdi. Ortadoğu’da Kürdistan olgusu, hem bölgesel, hem de uluslar arası güçlerin gündemine giren oldukça önemli bir sorun haline geldi.

Yukarı da sıraladığımız üç etnik ve ulusal kimliğe sahip halkların politik pozisyonu, bölgesel ilişkileri kökten değiştirecek durumdadır. Bunlar içerisinde Baluçistan’ın durumu uzun vadede çözümlenecek bir sorundur. Berberiler’in mevcut politik durumu çok daha günceldir ve orta düzeyde özerklik yapılarının gelişmesi ve uzun vadede devletleşmeleri söz konusu olabilecektir. Kürtlerin üzerinde yaşadıkları coğrafik durum ise bir bakıma Ortadoğu’nun kalbi durumundadır. Bu bakımdan bölgedeki bütün gelişmelerden doğrudan etkilenecek bir güçtür. Tersten, Kürtlerin mevcut politik ortamdan yararlanmaları da kaçınılmaz ve zorunlu olarak bölge ülkelerini de çok ciddi oranda etkileyecek ve sarsacaktır. Küresel çıkarlar eksenli yaşanan çatışma, Kürtlerin bölgesel özerkliklerini güçlendirmekte ve yeni politik olanakların doğmasına yol açmaktadır. Irak’tan sonra Suriye’de Özerk Kürdistan’ın oluşması için politik bir ortam yaratılmış bulunuyor. Bu bakımdan Ortadoğu denkleminde orta vadede dört coğrafya’da ‘Özerk Kürdistan Bölgeleri’nin oluşması artık kaçınılmazdır. Uzun süreli bir denklem içinde ‘Birleşik Kürdistan’ oluşumu gündeme gelecektir. Her iki durumda da, bölgenin 4 statükocu gücün mevcut yapısı hem fiziki sınırları bakımından, hem de politik yapıları bakımından değişime uğrayacaktır. Bu değişim, bölgede yeni stratejik güçlerin oluşmasına yol açacağı gibi mevcutların önemini yitirmesi anlamına gelecektir.

http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/Berberiler
http://www.ethnologue.com/show_country.asp?name=pk
http://tr.wikipedia.org/wiki/kurtler



Bölgesel çelişki ve çatışmanın en önemli halkasından biri de İsrail-Filistin sorunudur. Bu denklemin çözümü bir bakıma bölgesel ilişkilerin yeniden dizayn edilmesinin anahtarlarından biridir. İsrail-Filistin meselesi kısa ve orta vadede çözülecektir. Bu çözüme paralel olarak İsrail’in bir süre gerilemesine yol açacaktır. ‘Büyük İsrail’ hayaliyle tutuşan Yahudi yönetimi, mevcut topraklarının bir kısmını Filistin devletine bırakmak zorunda kalabilir. Uzun vadede, toprakları nispeten daralmış İsrail, elindeki bilişim teknolojisini kullanarak bölgenin lider ülkelerden biri haline gelebilecektir.

Diğer önemli bir gelişme ise Körfezin petrol ülkelerinin mevcut konumlarının değişmesidir. Yapay aşiret devletleri olarak bilinen mevcut ülkeler, zorunlu-gönüllü olarak Suudi Arabistan merkezli ve federasyon bir yapı alacak şekilde ‘Ortadoğu Arap Devletler Birliği’ biçiminde birleşmeleri kısa ve orta vadede gündeme gelecektir. Böylesi bir oluşum, hem küresel sistem güçlerinin, hem de söz konusu ülkelerin stratejik çıkarlarıyla tam uyumlu olacak gibi görünüyor, Aksi takdirde, mevcut politik dengeler içerisinde varlıklarını devam ettirme şansları çok daha zordur.

Bölgesel çelişkiler ve çatışmalar çok yönlü artarak devam edecektir. Bunlardan birincisi, ulusal çatışmaların artma eğilimidir. Özellikle statükocu bölgesel devletler, bu yönlü çatışmayı çok daha fazla körükleyeceklerdir. Örneğin Irak’ta Arap/Şii-Kürt, Türkiye’de Türk-Kürt, Suriye’de Arap-Kürt çatışmasının gelişmesi olasılığı söz konusudur. İkincisi dinsel çatışma nispeten yoğunlaşacaktır. Özellikle Çoğunluk Müslümanların, azınlık Hıristiyanlara yönelik saldırıları belirli bir süre artacaktır. Bu olası durum, Batı ile Doğu arasındaki ilişkilerde yeni sorunların oluşmasına yol açma olasılığı söz konusu olabilir. Üçüncüsü, İslami güçler arasındaki mezhepsel çatışmalar çok daha fazla yoğunlaşabilir. Pakistan’dan Cezayir’e kadarki geniş bir alandan Şii-Sünni çatışması, bölgesel rekabette çok daha fazla ön plana çıkacaktır. Suriye’nin karşı karşıya olduğu bugünkü politik denklem de bu çok daha belirgin hale gelmiş bulunuyor. Bölgesel devletlerin çok açık yönlendirmesiyle Suriye’de Sünni-Alevi çatışmasının kışkırtılmasının sonuçları oldukça ağır olacak gibi görünüyor.

Bir başka önemli nokta da, El Kaide gibi küreselleşen radikal İslami hareketler ile küresel sisteme adapte olmaya çalışan Müslüman Kardeşler veya Hamas gibi örgütler arasında çatışmaların gelişme olasılığının giderek artmaya başlamasıdır. Libya, Sudan, Somali, Mısır, Filistin, Irak ve en son Suriye’deki gelişmelerde bu saflaşma ve çatışmanın nesnel zemini çok daha gelişmiş bulunuyor.

Bütün bu süreçlere paralel olarak, Ortadoğu’da demokratik değişim ve gelişim süreci çok daha olanaklıdır. Ortadoğu halkları, kapitalist sisteme karşı yürüttüğü mücadele muazzam bir tarihsel geçmişe sahiptir. Bu bakımdan, haklar arasında yukarı da sözü edilen çatışmalar yaşanmadan, eşit bir temelde ortak birliklerin oluşturulması, demokratik muhalefetin geliştirilmesi söz konusu olabilir. Bunu geliştirecek olan da politik ilerici, devrimci alternatif güçlerdir. Bütün ülkelerin ve devletlerin toplumsal yapıları ve sınıfsal konumlanışları dikkate alındığında bu nesnel zeminin oldukça güçlü olduğunu görebiliriz. Burada öncelikli olarak, örgütlü toplumsal kuvvetlerin ön plana çıkması ve sürece müdahale edebilmesidir.

Küresel güçlerin Büyük Ortadoğu Projesinden çok, Büyük Ortadoğu Patlamasının yarattığı politik ve toplumsal sonuçları değerlendirmek çok daha önemlidir. Süreç kaçınılmaz olarak buraya doğru evrilecektir.


 
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