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Qazî Mihemed'in Kürd Ulusuna Vasiyeti


Qazî Mihemed'in Kürd Ulusuna Vasiyeti

Zulüm ve baskı gören halkım!

Yüce Allah aşkına vaatlere artık kanmayın. Çünkü onlar ne Allah'ı tanıyorlar, ne peygambere, ne kıyamet gününe, ne Allah huzurunda hesap vermeye inanıyorlar. Onların nezdinde, Müslüman da olsanız, Kürt olduğunuz için suçlusunuz, onların düşmanısınız

Kurd li Misrê - Nezîr Silo


Kurd li Misrê - Nezîr Silo

Misr yek ji welatên ku herî peywendîdar bû ji demek dirêj ve di nav dewletên erban de bi Kurdan re.

ABD İstihbaratı: Bölgede Kurulabilecek Bir Kürd Devleti...  


11-12-2012, 18:58 Kategori: Kurdistan  
ABD İstihbaratı: Bölgede Kurulabilecek Bir Kürd Devleti...

ABD istihbaratının, 'Kürdistan' Vurgusu


Radikal gazetesi, Ulusal İstihbarat Direktörlüğü’ne bağlı, “Ulusal İstihbarat Konseyi”nin hazırladığı, “Küresel Eğilimler 2030: Alternatif Dünyalar” raporu hakkında bir yazı yayınladı. "Bölgede kurulabilecek bir Kürd devletinin Türkiye'nin bütünlüğüne darbe vuracağı" ifadesinin de yer aldığı rapordan başlıklar:


ABD'de istihbarat kuruluşlarının son gelecek senaryosunda, "Bölgede kurulabilecek bir Kürt devletinin Türkiye'nin bütünlüğüne darbe vuracağı" ifadesi yer alıyor.

ABD’de istihbarat kuruluşları tarafından 5 yılda bir yayınlanan “gelecek senaryoları”nın sonuncusu açıklandı. İstihbarat kuruluşlarını bünyesinde toplayan, Ulusal İstihbarat Direktörlüğü’ne bağlı, “Ulusal İstihbarat Konseyi”nin hazırladığı, “Küresel Eğilimler 2030: Alternatif Dünyalar” raporunda dünyanın gelecek 17 yılına ilişkin öngörülerde bulunuldu.

Rapora göre, “en iyi senaryo” ABD, Avrupa ve Çin'in işbirliğinde başı çektiği bir dünya, “en kötü senaryo” devletler arasında geniş çaplı ihtilafların oluşması oldu. Türkiye 'nin 2030 yılına kadar yükselişe geçeceği söylenen raporda buna karşın, “Bir Kürt devletinin yükselişinin Türkiye'nin bütünlüğüne darbe olacağı ve Ortadoğu sınırlarının ortaya çıkmakta olan bu devletle yeniden çizileceği” ifadesi yer alıyor.

‘EN AZ 3 ÇOCUK’ İŞE YARAMIYOR

Ulusal İstihbarat Konseyi Danışmanı ve raporun başyazarı Mathew Burrows'a göre, 2030’a kadar dünyada tek bir 'hegamonik güç' yapısının kalamayacağı belirtilen rapor muhtemel senaryo değil ancak gerçekleşmeyeceğinden de emin olunmamalı.

Türkiye'de doğum oranında keskin bir düşüş yaşandığının belirtildiği raporda, bu şekilde devam etmesi halinde, 2030 yılında Türkiye'deki genç nüfus oranında az bir düşüş yaşanacağı ve Türkiye'nin Sahra Altı Afrikası ile Güneydoğu Asya gibi bölgelerden genç göçmenleri çekeceği dile getiriliyor.


KÜRESEL VE BÖLGESEL ÖNGÖRÜLER

ABD’ye Çin tavsiyesi: 2030 yılında Çin Amerika'yı geride bırakarak dünyanın en büyük ekonomisi olabilir. Amerika Birleşik Devletleri, Çin ile birlikte hareket ederek, küresel problemlerle başa çıkmada işbirliğine gitmeli

Su ve enerji: 2030'da yiyecek, su ve enerji ihtiyacı yüzde 35 ila 50 oranında artacak, bu da özellikle Afrika ve Ortadoğu gibi bölgelerde çatışmalara yol açabilir.

Dünyayı bekleyen 'büyük eğilimler': Birinci büyük eğilim olan 'bireysel güçlenme', önümüzdeki 15-20 yılda küresel orta sınıfın güçlenmesi, fakirliğin azalması, daha iyi sağlık ve eğitim koşullarını ifade ediyor. En önemli 'büyük eğilim' olarak görülen bu eğilimin diğer tüm eğilimleri etkileyebileceği belirtiliyor.

İkinci büyük eğilim olarak 'Gücün Yayılması'nda da dünyada artık hegamonik tek bir güç olmayıp, gücün, çok kutuplu dünyada koalisyon ve ağlar arası yer değiştirebileceği belirtiliyor.

Bu eğilimde, Çin'in 2030 yılında ABD'yi de geride bırakarak dünyanın en büyük ekonomisi olabileceği ifade edilirken, bu ortamda dünya ekonomisinin sağlığının, geleneksel olarak Batıdan çok, gelişmekte olan dünyanın ekonomisinin ne kadar iyi olduğuna bağlı olacağı öngörüsünde bulunuluyor. Bu eğilimde, Çin, Hindistan ve Brezilya'nın yanı sıra, Türkiye, Nijerya, Endonezya, Kolombiya ve Güney Afrika gibi bölgesel aktörlerin de küresel ekonomi için özellikle önemli hale gelmesi bekleniyor.

Türkiye, Kolombiya, Mısır, Endonezya, İran, Güney Afrika, Meksika gibi 'orta katmandaki' ülkelerin 2030 yılına kadar yükselişe geçeceği, ama Çin ve Hindistan'ın çok büyümesi nedeniyle bu ülkelerin çoğunluğunun 'ikinci sıra oyuncular' olarak kalmaya devam edeceği kaydediliyor. Yine de bu ülkelerin kolektif olarak Avrupa, Japonya ve Rusya'yı küresel güç bağlamında 2030 yılına kadar geride bırakmaya başlayacağı öngörüsünde bulunuluyor.

Demografik değişimleri içeren üçüncü büyük eğilimde de ana noktalar şöyle: Batıdaki yaşlanmaya karşın, gelişmekte olan ülkelerdeki genç nüfusun artıyor olması, göçmenlik ve artan kentleşme.

‘Kara kuğular’: Raporda, 'kara kuğular' olarak adlandırılan, tarihin akışını değiştirebilecek olası sıra dışı olayların yaratabileceği yıkıcı etkilerden de bahsedilirken, bunlar arasında, birkaç ayda milyonların ölümüne neden olabilecek şiddetli bir salgın ve iklim değişikliğinin hızında dünya nüfusunu beslemeyi zorlaştıracak derecede bir artış görülmesi senaryolarına yer verildi.

Oyun değiştiriciler: 2030'a kadar uzanan dönemde dünyanın nasıl değişeceğini büyük oranda belirleyecek 6 'oyun değiştirici' öğe: Krize meyilli bir küresel ekonomi, yönetim boşluğu, artan çatışma ihtimali, bölgesel istikrarsızlığın kapsamının artması, yeni teknolojilerin etkisi, ABD'nin rolü.

Alternatif dünyalar: 'Alternatif dünya'lar şu başlıklar altında sıralanıyor: Motorların aksaması, füzyon, şişeden cin çıkması, devletten bağımsız bir dünya.

En iyi senaryoda, ABD, Avrupa ve Çin'in, birlikte hareket ederek güney Asya'daki ihtilaflara müdahale etmesi ve ateşkes sağlaması, bunun yanında, AB, Çin ve Avrupa'nın ikili ilişkilerinde büyük pozitif değişimlere öncülük ederek dünya genelinde işbirliğine öncülük yapmaları öngörülüyor. Bunun yanında, bu senaryoda yükselen ekonomiler de hızlı büyümeye devam ediyor, dünya ekonomisi her alanda gelişme gösteriyor. En iyi senaryoda ayrıca, orta sınıfın yükselişi, kentleşme, daha gelişmiş sağlık hizmetleri ve teknoloji kullanımı öngörülüyor. Şiddet içeren terör azalıp, siber terör riski artıyor. Raporda, küresel istikrarı artırabilecek olumlu senaryolar olarak, 'Demokratik bir Çin ya da reform gerçekleştirmiş bir İran' sıralanıyor.

En kötü senaryo ise devletler arası geniş çaplı ihtilafı içinde barındırıyor. Bunun arkasında yatabilecek etmen olarak da ABD ve AB'nin içe dönerek küresel liderlikle ilgilenmemesi gösteriliyor. Ancak, dünyanın mevcut konumu ve küresel ekonomik düzen ve bağlar nedeniyle böyle bir senaryonun olabilmesine pek ihtimal verilmiyor.

'Şişeden cin çıkması' senaryosu ise 'aşırılıkları' içeren bir senaryo. Bu senaryoda, birçok ülkede siyasi ve sosyal tansiyonu artıran eşitsizliklerin artması seçeneği bulunuyor. Bu senaryoda, kazananlar ve kaybedenler keskin biçimde ayrılıyor, ABD, enerji bağımsızlığını kazanırken, önde gelen güç olarak kalmayı da sürdürüyor. Ancak, bu senaryoda ABD, artık her güvenlik tehdidinde 'küresel polis' rolünü oynamaya çalışmıyor. Ayrıca, bu senaryoda, büyük güçler arasında ihtilaf riskinin artması ihtimali var.

KURDİSTAN'IN YÜKSELİŞİ

'Devlet dışı dünya' senaryosunda da devlet dışı oluşumlar, çok uluslu şirketler, akademik kurumlar ve varlıklı kişiler, küresel zorluklarla mücadele etmede başı çekiyor. “Kürdistan'ın yükselişi Türkiye'nin bütünlüğüne darbe olur ve bu, çevresindeki komşularında büyük bir ihtilaf riskini artırır. Ortadoğu sınırları ortaya çıkmakta olan Kürdistan ile yeniden çizilir” ifadesi de bu değerlendirme kapsamında yer alıyor.

Raporun, demografik düzen bölümünde de Türkiye'ye kısaca değiniliyor. Burada, Güneydoğu Anadolu Bölgesi'nde Kürd nüfusta kadın başına düşen çocuk oranının 4 olduğu ifade edilerek, ülkelerdeki 'azınlık'ların bu şekilde yüksek doğum ve nüfus artışına sahip olmasının, ‘siyasi düzende kaygılar yaratacağı’ ifade ediliyor.


 
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