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Qazî Mihemed'in Kürd Ulusuna Vasiyeti


Qazî Mihemed'in Kürd Ulusuna Vasiyeti

Zulüm ve baskı gören halkım!

Yüce Allah aşkına vaatlere artık kanmayın. Çünkü onlar ne Allah'ı tanıyorlar, ne peygambere, ne kıyamet gününe, ne Allah huzurunda hesap vermeye inanıyorlar. Onların nezdinde, Müslüman da olsanız, Kürt olduğunuz için suçlusunuz, onların düşmanısınız

Kurd li Misrê - Nezîr Silo


Kurd li Misrê - Nezîr Silo

Misr yek ji welatên ku herî peywendîdar bû ji demek dirêj ve di nav dewletên erban de bi Kurdan re.

Suriye Raporu: Lübnanlaşma Projesi  


28-02-2012, 12:36 Kategori: Dünyadan  
Uluslararası Terörizm Üzerine Araştırma ve Terörizm mağdurlarına Yardım Merkezi (CIRET-AVT) ile Fransız İstihbarat Araştırma Merkezi (CF2R) yayınladıkları ortak bir raporda, Suriye krizini değerlendirdi. Suriye krizini “İmal edilmiş Lübnanlaşma” olarak tanımlayarak, ülke içinde farklı eğilimler, muhalif güçler, dış güçlerin müdahalesi, medya üzeri yürütülen dezenformasyon tekniklerine dikkat çekti.

3-10 Aralık tarihleri arsında Suriye’de incelemelerde bulunan CIRET-AVT heyeti, ülke içinde ve dışındaki muhalefet temsilcileri ve çok sayıda uzmanla yaptığı görüşmelerin sonucunda hazırladığı raporu yayınladı.

“Suriye: İmal edilmiş Lübnanlaşma” başlığı altında yayınlanan raporda, komşu ülkeler Ürdün, Lübnan, Türkiye ve belli bir düzeyde Irak ile Katar, Suudi Arabistan, ABD ve belli ölçüde Fransa gibi uluslararası ve bölgesel güçlerin sorunun içinde yer almasına dikkat çekiliyor.

Bununla birlikte Körfez medyası ile Anglo-Sakson büyük basın grupları ve Avrupa ve Fransız meslektaşlarının Lübnan sürecinde olduğu gibi Şam rejiminin yıkılmasını öncelikli hedef yaban bu krizde ön plandaki aktörler haline geldiği kaydediliyor.

Tunus, Mısır, Libya, Bahreyn ve Yemen’den sonra Suriye’nin geniş bir tepki hareketi ile karşı karşıya kaldığına dikkat çeken rapor, ancak “gerçek ve meşru talepli bir halk hareketini” tanımlayan “Suriye Baharı”nın, 2011 baharının sonunda hızlı bir şekilde radikalleşen bir muhalefet ile güvenlikçi bir rejim arasında krize dönüştüğünü vurguluyor. Her ne kadar Arap Baharı dinamiği içinde yer alsa da Suriye’nin durumunun uluslar arası güçlerin içerisinde yer almasıyla ayrıştığına işaret edilen raporda, bu çatışmanın gerçekten tamamen farklı dezenformasyon ve olayların çarpıtılmasına yer verdiği belirtiliyor.

Özgür Suriye Ordusu’nun 3 bin silahlı üyesi olduğuna işaret eden rapor, ancak operasyonel öneminin abartıldığını, medyatik etkisi kadar orantılı bir gücünün olmadığını belirtiyor. Heyetin incelemelerin tamamladığı sırada BM’nin bilançosuna göre 5 bin kişinin öldüğü ve onbinlercesinin yaralandığını hatırlatan rapor, bur rakamları doğrulamanın zor olduğunu söylüyor. Raporda, 14 bini aşkın muhalifin tutuklu olduğu ve 12 bin kişinin de ülkeyi terk ettiği iddiasına da yer veriliyor.

Suriye muhalefetinin birbirinden ayrı üç bileşimden oluştuğu belirtiliyor. “İç, eski ve ulusal muhalefet” olarak tanımladığı, PYD’nin de içinde bulunduğu Ulusal ve Demokratik Değişim İçin Koordinasyon Komitesi’nin (UDDİKK) tüm dış müdahalelere karşı olduğunu ama aynı zamanda gitmesini istediği hükümetle de diyaloga da karşı olduğu ifade ediliyor.

KOORDİNASYON KOMİTESİ EN GÜVENİLİR VE MEŞRU BİLEŞİM

Kaos yaşanmaması için rejimle diyalog içinde olunmasını isteyen bir iç muhalefet eğilimi olduğunu da belirten rapor, Suriye Ulusal Konseyi’nin (SUK) ise dış güce dayandığı ve askeri bir müdahale istediğini kaydediyor.

Rapor, ayrıca Koordinasyon Komitesi’nin ise 11 Arap, Kürt ve Asuri parti ile bağımsız ulusal şahsiyetleri bir araya getirdiğini belirterek, Komite için şu değerlendirmede bulunuyor: “Rejim karşıtı en güvenilir ve meşru bileşimdir. Güçlü bir iç kökleşmeden yararlanıyor. Tüm yöneticileri siyasi angajmanları ve rejime yönelik eleştirilerinden dolayı Suriye zındanlarını tanıdı. Ama UDDİKK’yi kişiler arası rekabet kemiriyor.”

SURİYE ULUSAL KONSEYİ’NİN AĞIRLIĞI YOK

Rapor, SUK’u “Suriye’de ağırlığı yok veya az olan, kökleri bulunmayan, az sayıda taraftarı olan, hiçbir iç temeli bulunmayan, Katar, Suudi Arabistan, 26 Batılı devlet ve medyası tarafından desteklenen bir oluşum” olarak tanımlıyor. Bunca yardımın birinci hedefinin SUK’un da dileği olan Suriye’ye yönelik olası bir Batı müdahalesini meşrulaştırmak olduğu ifade ediliyor.

SUK’a verilen uluslar arası desteğe karşın Koordinasyon Komitesi’nin “izole ve finansal kaynaklardan yoksun” olduğunu belirten rapor, onsuz hiçbir alternatifin mümkün olmadığı meşru bir makamı temsil etmesine rağmen Koordinasyon Komitesi’nin yabancı destek görmediğine işaret ediyor.

İç muhalefetteki iki eğilimin çözümün “yüzde yüzde Suriyeli” olması, yurtdışında değil ülke içinde çözülmesi gerektiğini istediğini belirten rapor, Kürtlerin de 23 Milyon nüfuslu Suriye’de 3 milyon nüfusa sahip olduğuna dikkat çekiyor.

Rapor, “Başlangıçta, sokakla birlikteydiler, zira talepler onlara meşru görünüyordu. Çok büyük çoğunlukla Kürtler reformlardan, sivil ve siyasi özgürlükler ile demokratik bir kuruluştan yanalar. Ama ülkenin bütünlüğü için silahlı radikalleşmenin tehlikeli olduğunu ve sonuç olarak Suriye ile Yakın ve Ortadoğu’nun diğer kalanındaki toplumlarının geleceğini tehlikeye attığını düşündüler” diye belirtildi.

“Kürtler için Müslüman Kardeşlerin İslamcı alternatifi çözümlerin en kötüsü” diyen rapor, Kürtlerin SUK ile diyalogu reddettiğini, Ankara’da toplanmayı kabul ettiği için de bu oluşumda yer alan bazı Kürtleri “ihanetçi” olarak gördüğünü ifade ediyor.

DEZENFORMASYON TEKNİKLERİ

Suriye’ye ilişkin dezenformasyon ve bilgi çarpıtmalarına da dikkat çeken rapor, Batılı medyanın yanı sıra özellikle El Cezire’nin Suriye iktidarını hedefleyen ve “şiddet ile terörizm eylemleri” dahil ülkedeki eylemleri meşrulaştırmaya yönelik çok titiz bir çalışma yürüttüğünü kaydediyor. Rapor bu çalışmayı şöyle dile getiriyor:

Genelleştirme tekniği: Şu veya bu yerleşim yeri belirtilmiyor, sürekli ‘Suriye’ veya ‘bir ailenin işgalindeki ülke’den bahsediliyor.

Yaftalama tekniği: Sünni İslamcı gruplardan bahsedilmiyor, ama ‘Özgür Suriye Ordusu’ veya ‘Direniş güçleri’ deniliyor.

Zaman kavramının kaldırılması tekniği: Eski tarihler kullanılır, çatışmalar başlamadan önce duyurulur.

Tahrifat tekniği: Bir çok Arap uydu kanalı Mısır veya Yemen’den görüntüler yayınlayarak (Birkaç hafta veya aylarca eski) bunların Suriye’de çekildiğini söylediler. Genellikle, 2011 yazının ortasında manto ile gezen insanların çekildiği bu görüntüler ne mevsim, ne de günün hava koşulları ile uyuşmuyordu.

EL CEZİRE HANGİ SİYASİ AJANDAYA HİZMET EDİYOR

Suriye’deki ihlaller ve ölüm sayısına ilişkin Batı medyasının temel kaynaklarından birinin Avrupa Birliği tarafından tanınan Suriye İnsan Hakları Gözlemevi (SİHG) olduğunu hatırlatan rapor, bu gözlemevinin meşruluğunun tartışılır olduğunu söylüyor. Rapora, Gözlemevi’nin Londra’ya taşınmadan önce Almanya’daki sürgün Müslüman Kardeşler tarafından kurulduğunu belirtiyor.

Katar televizyonu El Cezire’nin beş ay boyunca yayınlarının yüzde 70’inin Suriye krizine ayırdığına işaret eden Rapor, Libya’da olduğu gibi bu televizyonun hangi siyasi ajandaya hizmet ettiğini sormanın da meşru olduğunu söylüyor.

SURİYE’NİN GELECEĞİ

Rapor, Tunus, Mısır ve Libya’da yaşananların aksine, krizin geleceğinin sadece bir aile değil, azınlık da olsa dağlık bölgelere çok kök salmış Alevi mezhebini temsil eden Suriye Devlet Başkanı’nın “kişisel kaderine” bağlı olmadığını belirtiyor. Batılı medya tarafından öne sürülen “Rejimin çöküşü” takviminin düzenli olarak çok belirgin bir şekilde düzeltildiği ve “Neden Şam rejimi halen ayakta?” başlığının bunların en fantezisti olduğu belirtiliyor.

Raporda şunlar belirtiliyor: “Suriye rejimi sürebilir, zira sağlam bir şekilde ülkedeki farklı bölgelere kök salmış, özellikle de Şam ve Halep’e. Ülkenin bu en büyük iki şehri Suriye nüfusunun yarısını sabitliyor. Aralık 2011 itibariyle, 2011 baharında Libya’dakine benzer yabancı askeri bir müdahale, sadece Rusya ve Çin’in BM Güvenlik Konseyi’ndeki pozisyonlarından değil, her şeyden önce İran’ı direk bağlayan bölgesel jeopolitikte ötürü çok ihtimal dışı kalmaya devam ediyor.”

BALKANLAŞMA SENARYOSU: 300 BİN KİŞİ ÖLEBİLİR

Lübnan’ı, Ürdün, Irak ve hatta Türkiye’yi içine alan bir iç savaşın yayılmasının, “dar Lübnanlaşma” krizini daha geniş bir formata taşıyacağı uyarısını yapan rapor, petrol monarşilerine de yayılabilecek şekilde Yakın Doğu’nun “balkanlaşması”na yol açabileceğini belirtiyor. Uzmanlar, böyle bir senaryonun 300 bin kişinin ölümüne yol açabileceğini ifade ediyor.

Rapor, Rusya ve İran arabuluculuğu ile Yemen tarzı bir çözüm de bulunabileceğine işaret ediyor.

“Mevcut kriz siyasi bir sorundur, mezhepsel değil” diyen rapor, şu değerlendirmede bulunuyor: “Olayların hızlandırılması öngörülmez olsa da toplumsal bir iç savaş kadar olarak görünmüyor. Mezhepler yoğunlaşmış siyasi bloklarla uyuşmuyor. Şam ve Halep’in ekonomik koşulları rahat ticari sınıfı rejimi desteklemeye devam ediyor ve iç muhalefette Alevi ve Hristiyanlara rastlanıyor”

Suriye toplumunun topluluk olarak çoğulcu olduğunu belirten rapor, nüfusun yüzde 40’ının Latin veya Ortodoks Hıristiyanları, muhalif Müslümanlar (Şii, Dürzi, İsmailiyye) ve Kürtler gibi azınlıklardan oluştuğunu ifade eden rapor, “Bunlardan hiçbiri fundamantalist İslamcı bir iktidarla karşı karşıya kalmak istemiyor” diye vurguluyor.


Görüşlerine başvurdukları muhatapların, artık hiçbir şeyin eskisi gibi olmayacağı konusunda hemfikir olduğuna dikkat çeken rapor, şöyle noktalıyor: “Tunus, Mısır, Libya, Yemen ve Suriye, uzun sürebilecek geçici safhalara angaje oldular. Her ne kadar bir ülkeden ötekine benzerlikler ortaya çıksa da, durumlar genelleştirilmeye, ya da globalleşmeye direniyor. Bu açıdan, Suriye belki tarihinden, sosyo-dinsel modeli ve bölgesel çevresinden dolayı daha fazla direnir. Devrimler sürüyor ama birbirine benzemiyor. Her ne olursa olsun, ‘Arap devrimlerinin’ seçim takvimine bakarak, radikal İslam’ın mı yoksa post-global ‘demokratura’nın mı (demokrasi görünümünde kamufle edilmiş diktatörlük) demokrasi içerisinde eriyeceğini söylemek için halen biraz erken.”

*CIRET-AVT Temmuz 2003’te Belçika kadın senatörü Anne-Marie Lizin, Cezayirli eski bakan Saida Benhabiles ve Fransız istihbarat servisi DTS’nin eski müdürü Yves Bonnet tarafından kuruldu.

*CF2R 2000 yılında kuruldu. Bağımsız bir Think Tank olarak kendisini tanıtan CF2R, Fransız istihbaratı ve Fransızca dilli bölgelerdeki istihbaratı anlatan çalışmalar yaptı. Bugüne kadar 70’i aşkın kitap, 60 araştırma raporu, 300 haber, 350 analiz notu ve 700 radyo bülteni yayınladı.

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