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İ-DKP Başkanı Mustafa Hejri İle Röportaj-Hülya Yetişen


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Irak Kürdistanı’nda Peşmerge ordu güçlerimiz vardır. Hatırlatılması gerekirki şu anda İran İslam Cumhuriyeti’ne yönelik silahlı mücadelemizi askıya aldık.
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Qazî Mihemed'in Kürd Ulusuna Vasiyeti


Qazî Mihemed'in Kürd Ulusuna Vasiyeti

Zulüm ve baskı gören halkım!

Yüce Allah aşkına vaatlere artık kanmayın. Çünkü onlar ne Allah'ı tanıyorlar, ne peygambere, ne kıyamet gününe, ne Allah huzurunda hesap vermeye inanıyorlar. Onların nezdinde, Müslüman da olsanız, Kürt olduğunuz için suçlusunuz, onların düşmanısınız

Kurd li Misrê - Nezîr Silo


Kurd li Misrê - Nezîr Silo

Misr yek ji welatên ku herî peywendîdar bû ji demek dirêj ve di nav dewletên erban de bi Kurdan re.

Suriye'de Çatışmanın Stratejik Merkezi: Halep - Mustafa Peköz  


13-08-2012, 15:27 Kategori: Analiz  
Suriye'de Çatışmanın Stratejik Merkezi: Halep - Mustafa Peköz


Suriye'de Çatışmanın Stratejik Merkezi: Halep

Dr. Mustafa Peköz

Suriye doğrudan bir iç savaş içerisinde bulunuyor. Bunu Kürtlerle, Dürzîlerle, Hıristiyanlarla Araplar arasındaki bir savaş değil, tersine devlete egemen olan Arap Baas rejimiyle, buna alternatif olan Arap kökenli başka güçlerin çatışması olarak tanımlamak çok daha doğrudur. Bu savaş halklar arasında yürümüyor. Tersine halkları birbirine boğazlatma savaşı olarak gelişiyor.

Bu savaşın arkasında uluslararası güçler bulunuyor. Esad’ın kazanması, İran’ın bölgedeki gücünü, uluslararası alanda ise Rusya ve Çin’in Akdeniz’deki gücünü pekiştirecektir. Muhalif denen güçler kazandığında, bölgede Suudi Arabistan’ın ve İsrail’in, uluslararası alanda ise ABD, Fransa ve İngiltere’nin kazanması anlamına gelecektir. Her iki durumda da bölgesel ilişkiler yeniden şekillenecektir. Bu bakımdan Suriye’de değişim kaçınılmazdır ve mevcut politik dengeler yeniden şekillenecektir.

Ayrıca Kürtler için ortaya çıkan bölgesel politik durum çok daha önemlidir. Bu bakımdan kritik dengeler içerisinde politikalarını belirlerken çok hassas olmak zorundandırlar. Stratejik çıkarlar anlık geçici politik çıkarlara heba edilmemelidir.

Dengeler Halep’te belirlenecek

Bu bakımdan Suriye’deki somut durum Halep’te kilitlenmiş bulunuyor. Bu şehirde ortaya çıkacak askeri sonuç Suriye’nin genelini etkileyecek durumdadır. Suriye’nin fiilen içerisinde bulunduğu iç savaşın askeri ve politik dengelerini belirleyecek olan yer Halep’tir.

Halep birçok bakımdan önemlidir. Birincisi Suriye’nin ekonomik kalbidir. Suriye’nin ekonomik durumunu analiz etmek için, Halep’in ticaretteki gelişmesine bakmak yeterlidir. İthalat ve ihracat merkezi olarak işlev gören Halep, aynı zamanda uluslararası ve özellikle bölgesel sermayenin yoğunlaştığı bir il olarak ön plana çıkıyor. Tarihsel olarak bakıldığında da Bağdat ve Halep, bütün ticari ilişkilerin merkezi durumunda olmuşlar. Geçmişten beri ticari ilişkilerde önemli bir işleve sahip olan Halep’in kontrolü sermaye bakımından da önemlidir. Suriye burjuvazisi Halep’te üslenmiş bulunuyor. Egemen sınıflardan orta tabakaya kadar geniş bir katman burada konumlanmış. Özellikle orta sınıf bakımından çok önemli bir merkezdir. Bir bakıma ekonomik başkent olarak tanımlanabilir.

İkinci nokta, Halep’in kozmo-etnik yapısı Suriye’nin küçük bir versiyonudur. 2011 yılı verilerine göre merkez nüfusu 2,3 milyon, çevresiyle birlikte yaklaşık olarak 4 milyondur. Halep nüfusunun yüzde 60’ını Araplar, yüzde 22’sini Kürtler, yüzde 10’unu Hıristiyanlar, geri kalanını Ermeniler, Türkmenler, Asurîler, diğer Hıristiyanlar, Dürziler ve hatta Çerkezler oluşturuyor. Suriye nüfusunun yüzde 15 civarında bir oranını oluşturan Alevilerin Halep’teki oranı da yaklaşık olarak yüzde 8’dir. Alevilerin önemli bir kısmı Arap, az bir kısmı da Kürt kökenlidir.

Çok farklı dinsel ve etnik grubun yaşadığı kentte, mahalleler, farklı etnik ve dinsel gruplara göre fiili gettolar biçiminde bölünmüş durumdadırlar. Aralarında çok ciddi sorunlar olmadan da yaşamlarını sürdüren sosyal gruplar arasındaki dengeleri olumsuz yönde etkileyecek fiili bir durum yaşanıyor. Bu bakımdan Suriye genelinde nasıl bir toplumsal ve politik kaosun ortaya çıkacağını görmek için Halep’teki durumu anlamak yeterlidir.

Halep’i alan Suriye’yi alır

Üçüncüsü, Halep, bölgesel ilişkilerin geçiş noktasıdır. Bir bakıma bölge ülkelerinin geçiş yollarının merkezi olarak görmek mümkün. Halep’i kim elinde tutarsa psikolojik üstünlük bir yana daha çok stratejik üstünlüğü ele geçirmiş olacaktır. Esad, rejimin geleceği için Halep’i bütünlüklü denetimine almak zorundadır. Başka bir çaresinin olmadığının da farkındadır. Halep nüfusunun önemli bir kısmını Sünniler oluşturmakla birlikte Esad’a ciddi bir destekleri bulunuyor. Bu desteği kaybetmek istemeyen Baas rejimi, Halep’teki belirsizliğe kısa sürede son vermek istiyor. Baas rejiminin Şam’da olduğu gibi Halep’te etkinliği sağlaması, öncelikle toplumsal desteğini koruması anlamına gelir. Ayrıca psikolojik üstünlüğü ele geçirir ve uluslararası meşruiyetini korur.

Muhalifler için Halep, tahmin edilenden çok daha önem arz ediyor. Libya modelini esas alarak Halep’i ele geçirip ikinci bir başkent yaratarak, uluslararası desteğini arttırmak istiyorlar. Ancak muhalif denen grup bir bütünlük oluşturmuyor ve dağınıklar. Henüz toplumsal bir tabanları yok. Savaşçı güçlerin çoğunluğunu dışarıdan ithal edilen kesimler oluşturuyor. Halep’teki Sünni nüfus yoğunluğunu dikkate alarak, burada kendilerine toplumsal bir dayanak yaratmak istiyorlar. Ayrıca, stratejik konumu nedeniyle de özellikle askeri yardım aldıkları Türkiye ile yakın ilişki kurmaları bakımından da son derece önemlidir. Eğer muhalifler Halep’te kaybederlerse, fiilen bir yenilgi almış olacakları gibi çok daha fazla bölüneceklerdir. Son derece tartışmalı olan uluslararası destek önemli oranda zayıflayacaktır.

Esad, Halep savaşını ‘bütün anaların en büyük savaşı’ tanımlarken, bir bakıma rejimin geleceğinin Halep’i kazanmakta geçtiğini vurguladı. Bu bakımdan Esad, Halep’te kısa sürede sonuç alıcı çok kapsamlı bir savaşa girişireken, muhalif denen kesimler ise bu süreci uzatmak istiyor.

Esad’ın hedefi kısa sürede sonuç almak

Esad’ın zayıf halkası giderek gelişiyor. Suriye’de Sünni kesimi üzerinde belirgin bir ağırlığı olan ve yıllardır Baas rejiminin yanında olan Başbakan gibi birçok kişi başka ülkelere kaçtı. Savaşın uzaması bu tür kaçışları hızlandıracak ve toplumsal tepkinin oluşmasına nesnel bir zemin hazırlayacaktır. Halep bu zayıf halkanın ortasında duruyor. Esad bu gerçeği bildiği için, Halep savaşında kısa sürede sonuç alarak, toplumun psikolojik yönelimini engellemek istiyor. Savaşın uzaması daima rejimleri zayıflatır. Bu gerçeğin farkında olan muhalifler, zayıf halkada Esad’a yüklenmek istiyorlar. Biliniyor ki, dışarıda insan toplayarak savaş yürütülmez. İçte toplumsal dinamikler yoksa toplumsal ayaklanma da olmaz. Esad rejimi, şu ana kadar bu avantajı kullanıyor ve Halep, bu dengeyi bozacak tek merkezdir. Ayrıca Esad ailesinin çok yakın bireylerinden muhaliflere destek verenler olduğu biliniyor. Örneğin Paris’te yaşayan amcası Rıfat Esad, arka planda muhaliflere destek sunuyor.

Suriye’nin geleceğini bir bakıma Halep belirleyecektir. Bu bakımdan bu kente yaşayan Kürtler, Hıristiyanlar, Ermeniler, Türkmenler ve diğer dinsel ve etnik grupların alacağı tutum da son derece önemlidir. Genel olarak dikkat edildiğinde, diğer grupların yaşadığı bölgelerde ciddiye alınacak bir çatışma söz konusu değil. Özellikle nüfus yoğunluğu ve örgütlü yapısı bakımından önemli bir güç olan Kürtlerin tutumu, askeri ve politik dengeyi değiştirecek bir düzeydedir. Kürtler, Suriye genelinde olduğu gibi Halep içinde de savaşın bir tarafı asla olmamalıdırlar.

Kazananı da kaybedeni de çok olacak bir savaş

Satranç tahtası üzerinde binlerce Halep taktiği bulunuyor. Herkes zayıf halkadan vurarak karşıyı mat etmek istiyor. Satrançta pat varken, Halep’te ‘pat’ söz konusu olmayacak. Halep oyununun bir tarafında, Esad rejimi ve onu destekleyen İran, Irak ve Lübnan bulunuyor. Diğer tarafından Türkiye, Suudi Arabistan ve İsrail bulunuyor. Halep savaşının tarafları çoktur. Kazananı da, kaybedeni de çok olacaktır.

Halep savaşını bugünkü rejim kazanırsa, S. Arabistan ve Türkiye’de sarsıcı etkileri çok daha fazla olacaktır. Obama’nın beysbol sopası ikisinin kafasına çok kötü inecektir. Muhalifler kazanırsa İran süreci hızlanacaktır.

Suriye genelinde dengeli politikasını sürdüren ve dikkatini Kürdistan’ın korunmasına ve inşasına veren Kürdistan Ulusal Konseyi, aynı taktiği Halep için de uygulamalı, karşıt güçler arasında taraf olmamalı, olası saldırılar karşısında Halepli Kürtlerini korumalıdır.

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